French nuclear fleet situation – update 21/04/2023
This is an up-to-date report on the status of the French nuclear reactor fleet. For background information on the current situation, you can refer to the FAQ.
Update 2023-04-21:
France is still a power exporter in April, as it was in the three first months of 2023: For the first month since May 2022, France became a net power exporter again in January 2023, mostly due to weather conditions (temperature, wind & sun) and reduction in residential, tertiary & industrial consumption (minus 8% to 10%). After a drop in the first weeks of 2023, output of the nuclear power plant fleet is now increasing compared to 2022.
35 out of 56 reactors on the grid, maximum nuclear power capacity 36 GW: down from the first half of February (when there were 45 out of 56 reactors online, maximum of 45.9 GW out of a total capacity of 61.3 GW), mostly due to lower demand, maintenance programs & strikes. With winter 2022-2023 now over, the risk of power grid failure is extremely low until winter 2023-2024. Grid company RTE now considers “winter 2023-2024 as less risky than the previous one from an electric point of view.”
2 out of 4 N4 units back on the grid: After 16 months offline and replacement of defective piping systems, the N4 reactor Chooz B2 (1500 Mwe – one of the four most recent and highest-capacity French nuclear units) is back on the grid since mid-April. It’s the second N4 unit to return to service, after Civaux 1 in January,. Stress corrosion cracking was detected in safety system piping for the first time in October 2021 on the N4 series, which has been the series most affected on the French fleet by the phenomenon. The last two N4 units, Chooz B1 and Civaux 2, are scheduled to restart before mid-May.
Hydro at high level. Thanks to March and April rainfall and mild weather, lake and reservoir levels are now higher than they were during the equivalent periods in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.
Power markets: Extremely low spread in Q1 2023 between France and Germany (down from more than 500€ in autumn 2022 for January power futures).
For the full year 2024, the France/Germany spread on power futures rose to approximately 50€ after publication of a press release from nuclear safety authority ASN announcing detection of a thermal-fatigue-related crack on lines of the safety injection system near a weld that had been twice repaired. This new problem might cause additional downtime, as “EDF is implementing an inspection program on repaired welds on the RIS and RRA [two important emergency safety] systems,” according to ASN. Moreover, strikes protesting French pension reform, quite strong in the energy sector, have been hampering nuclear reactor maintenance schedules, making it much more difficult for EDF to deliver on time for winter 2023-2024. Despite this, EDF did not change its forecast of nuclear power output for the year 2023, saying that “the impact of the strikes is not significant enough to endanger our production range” (EDF spokeperson quoted by Les Echos, April 20th).
The markets do not take EDF’s reassuring statements for granted: for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, France/Germany spreads on power futures have risen significantly, reaching 120€ (Q4 2023) and 195€ (Q1 2024), Q3 2023 being almost unaffected and winter 2024-2025 little affected.
EDF says strikes do not threaten its production target | Invest (lesechos.fr)
Weekly summary of French electricity consumption | RTE (rte-france.com)
Réactualisation des perspectives pour le système électrique pour l’hiver 2022-2023 (février 2023)
Update 2023-03-30:
France is a Power exporter in January, February, and March: For the first month since May 2022, France has become a net power exporter again in the first quarter 2023, mostly due to mild weather, residential, tertiary & industrial consumption reduction [minus 8% to 10%], adequate hydro stock & slight increase of nuclear fleet power output availability [end march].
36 out of 56 reactors on the grid and Max Nuclear power output 37 GW: down from February first fortnight [45 out of 56 and max output of 45,9 GW out of a capacity of 61,3 GW], mostly due lower demand, maintenance programs & strikes. Winter 2022-2023 being now over, the risk of power grid failure is now low until winter 2023-2024. RTE considers now “winter 2023-2024 as less risky than the previous one from an electric point of view.”
1st N4 back on the grid: After 17 months off & faulty circuit being reconstructed, N4 [1500 MWe] Civaux 1 reactor [one of the 4 newests & most powerful french units] is back on the grid since January. Stress corrosion Cracking has been detected there for the first time in October 2021. 3 other N4 units should restart soon, according to schedule [reminder: this series of reactors has been the most affected by SCC]. First restart of the 3 other N4, Chooz has been aborted, due by a failure of the electric line.
Hydro at adequate level. Thanks to march rainfall and mild weather hydraulic stock is now adequate, higher than 2019, 2021 & 2022.
Markets: Only approximately 10/15€ spread in March Electricity prices between France & Germany [down from more than 500€ in autumn 2022 for January power future]. French futures power prices for 2023 have been divided by more than five since September to October 15th period.
For full year 2024, France/German spread on Power futures has increase to approx. 50€ after a press release about the detection of “the presence of a thermal fatigue crack on lines considered to be susceptible to stress corrosion of the safety injection system”. More outages may come, as “EDF is implementing an inspection program on the repaired welds of the RIS and RRA systems” according to ASN. Moreover, French pension reform strikes, quite strong in the energy sector are hampering nuclear reactor maintenance schedule making it much more difficult for EdF to deliver on time for winter 2023-2024. Despite this, EdF did not change its estimate of nuclear power output for year 2023.
Market do not take reassuring EdF Press realease for granted, as, for Q4 2023 and Q1 2024, France/German spread on power futures have increase from by 60€ to 100€, reaching more than 110€ [Q4 2023] and 170€ [Q1 2024], Q2&Q3 2023 being almost unaffected.
Power system outlook update – Fall and Winter
Update 2022-12-22:
According to RTE analysis, situation is now “less risky” than it was 6 months ago. There is now a way out of the CSC crisis, and the first reactors with reconstructed circuits are already delivering power. Finally, it seems that we have entered a sobriety ++ variant of the intermediate scenario [as defined in September], with an electricity consumption drop of 9% [after neutralizing temperature impact], including a 7% decrease in residential and tertiary [which was a quite a surprise, as no one expected such a decline]. Hydro & Gaz stock are adequate. No power outage occurred during week 50 [with lowest temperature index 5°C below average 1981-2010], thanks to Hydro Power records, connection perfectly working & Nuclear recent come-back. A little less than 45 GW Nuclear expected for the beginning of January.
No specific alert for end December. January expected to be tense, but with a risk level lowered from “high” to average”.
According to RTE analysis, situation is now “less risky” than it was 6 months ago. There is now a way out of the CSC crisis, and the first reactors with reconstructed circuits already delivering. Finally, it seems that we have entered a sobriety ++ variant of the intermediate scenario [as defined in September], with an electricity consumption drop of almost 10% in all sectors, including residential and tertiary [which was a quite a surprise, as no one expected such a decrease]. Hydro & Gaz stock are adequate. No power outage occurred during week 50 [with lowest temperature index of -6°C Vs average], thanks to Hydro Power records, connection perfectly working & Nuclear recent come-back. A little less than 45 GW Nuclear expected for the beginning of January which is higher than Rte’s November central scenario.
No specific alert for end December. January expected to be tense, but with a risk level lowered from “high” to average”.
RTE December 20th report :
Synthèse hebdomadaire de la consommation électrique française | RTE (rte-france.com)
EDF briefing note:
On December 16th EdF released a “note d’information” about CSC repair strategy change [6 remaining P’4 reactors to be stopped in 2023 for CSC circuit reconstruction whereas previous strategy was first to do the diagnostic] & rescheduling of the Restart of some Nuclear Plants.
Even though the message implied longer stops & rescheduling of reactor restarts, it did not affect French S1 2023 power futures pricing bearish trajectory [French ones almost closing their gap with German ones].
EDF
Detailed status for each reactor
Update – 2022-12-12
Current situation: Dunkelflaute – almost no wind and short winter days. The temperature is 3°C below the average, the wind is weak (max French windfarms output since December 4th: 3 GW out of 19,5 GW capacity) and overall cloudy conditions.
The long-awaited comeback of reactors on the grid has started at last! Nuclear production improved by almost 10 GW in one month and 4 GW in a week but, at 67% of the capacity and 40 out of 56 reactors delivering, is still way below standard. The week is expected to be tense, France being dependent on large imports and the remaining margin being very low, though RTE, the grid operator, did not issue any alert so far. On December 12th France is still able to deliver up to 3 GW to UK (10h-21h30).
General rule: As EDF very rarely delivers on time, we should not be overconfident about their forecasts, and better take RTE’s. Still, for the first time in months, RTE’s mid-November central hypothesis proved a little pessimistic, EDF already achieving delivering 1GW more power than expected for end of year 2022.
Nuclear production dashboards
French nuclear availability timeline – Dashboards – Dashboards – Grafana (energygraph.info)
https://energygraph.info/d/e72-tIG4z/home?orgId=1
RTE Dashboard
https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/la-production-delectricite-par-filiere
RTE weekly synthesis
https://www.rte-france.com/synthese-hebdomadaire-consommation-electrique-francaise
Detailed status for each reactor
If you want to follow nuclear news, subscribe to the Voices Newsletter !
