French nuclear fleet situation – update 22/12/2022

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Published on 13/12/2022

This is an up-to-date report on the status of the french nuclear reactor fleet. For background information on the current situation, you can refer to the FAQ.

Update 2022-12-22:


According to RTE analysis, situation is now “less risky” than it was 6 months ago. There is now a way out of the CSC crisis, and the first reactors with reconstructed circuits are already delivering power. Finally, it seems that we have entered a sobriety ++ variant of the intermediate scenario [as defined in September], with an electricity consumption drop of 9% [after neutralizing temperature impact], including a 7% decrease in residential and tertiary [which was a quite a surprise, as no one expected such a decline]. Hydro & Gaz stock are adequate. No power outage occurred during week 50 [with lowest temperature index 5°C below average 1981-2010], thanks to Hydro Power records, connection perfectly working & Nuclear recent come-back. A little less than 45 GW Nuclear expected for the beginning of January.


No specific alert for end December. January expected to be tense, but with a risk level lowered from “high” to average”.


According to RTE analysis, situation is now “less risky” than it was 6 months ago. There is now a way out of the CSC crisis, and the first reactors with reconstructed circuits already delivering. Finally, it seems that we have entered a sobriety ++ variant of the intermediate scenario [as defined in September], with an electricity consumption drop of almost 10% in all sectors, including residential and tertiary [which was a quite a surprise, as no one expected such a decrease]. Hydro & Gaz stock are adequate. No power outage occurred during week 50 [with lowest temperature index of -6°C Vs average], thanks to Hydro Power records, connection perfectly working & Nuclear recent come-back. A little less than 45 GW Nuclear expected for the beginning of January which is higher than Rte’s November central scenario.


No specific alert for end December. January expected to be tense, but with a risk level lowered from “high” to average”.


RTE December 20th report :


Réactualisation des perspectives pour le système électrique – Automne et hiver 2022-2023 (rte-france.com)


Synthèse hebdomadaire de la consommation électrique française | RTE (rte-france.com)


EDF briefing note::

On December 16th EdF released a “note d’information” about CSC repair strategy change [6 remaining P’4 reactors to be stopped in 2023 for CSC circuit reconstruction whereas previous strategy was first to do the diagnostic] & rescheduling of the Restart of some Nuclear Plants.
Even though the message implied longer stops & rescheduling of reactor restarts, it did not affect French S1 2023 power futures pricing bearish trajectory [French ones almost closing their gap with German ones].
EDF

Detailed status for each reactor

Update – 2022-12-12

Current situation: Dunkelflaute – almost no wind and short winter days. The temperature is 3°C below the average, the wind is weak (max French windfarms output since December 4th: 3 GW out of 19,5 GW capacity) and overall cloudy conditions.

The long-awaited comeback of reactors on the grid has started at last! Nuclear production improved by almost 10 GW in one month and 4 GW in a week but, at 67% of the capacity and 40 out of 56 reactors delivering, is still way below standard. The week is expected to be tense, France being dependent on large imports and the remaining margin being very low, though RTE, the grid operator, did not issue any alert so far. On December 12th France is still able to deliver up to 3 GW to UK (10h-21h30).

General rule: As EDF very rarely delivers on time, we should not be overconfident about their forecasts, and better take RTE’s. Still, for the first time in months, RTE’s mid-November central hypothesis proved a little pessimistic, EDF already achieving delivering 1GW more power than expected for end of year 2022.

Nuclear production dashboards

French nuclear availability timeline – Dashboards – Dashboards – Grafana (energygraph.info)

https://energygraph.info/d/e72-tIG4z/home?orgId=1

RTE Dashboard

https://www.rte-france.com/eco2mix/la-production-delectricite-par-filiere

RTE weekly synthesis

https://www.rte-france.com/synthese-hebdomadaire-consommation-electrique-francaise

Detailed status for each reactor

Excel report

PDF report

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